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UKIP could finish PM, say Mail & Indy

Sunday, 31st May 2009

Both the Daily Mail and Independent newspapers have reported that UKIP success in the Euro elections this week could prompt a Cabinet-level attempt to topple PM Gordon Brown.

The Daily Mail's Tim Shipman wrote:

Gordon Brown is facing an electoral humiliation that looks set to plunge his leadership into crisis, according to a shock poll.

Labour is now trailing the UK Independence Party heading into Thursday's European elections.

Support for the government has slumped by nine per cent over the past month, leaving Labour trailing in a distant third place.

The party is now on just 16 per cent, three points behind UKIP and 14 per cent down on the Tories.

The figures back up a private poll for UKIP, published yesterday, which showed the party on 19 per cent and within striking distance of Labour.

If the results of the Populus poll for the Times are replicated when the results are announced a week tomorrow, the Prime Minister's grip on power will be seriously weakened.

Labour plotters have long seen defeat to UKIP as a potential tipping point that could persuade discontented ministers to force Mr Brown from power.

MEANWHILE in the Independent, the paper's deputy political editor, Nigel Morris wrote:

The UK Independence Party is closing in on Labour as campaigning for next week's European elections reaches its final days, polls suggest.

"The fiercely Eurosceptic party believes it could humiliate the Government in the wake of the expenses scandal by coming second behind the Conservatives in Thursday's vote.

"Such a disastrous result would intensify pressure on Gordon Brown, triggering fresh speculation over a Cabinet-level attempt to topple him.

A YouGov poll of people who said they were certain to vote put the Conservatives on 26 per cent, Labour on 21 per cent, UKIP on 16 per cent and the Liberal Democrats on 14 per cent.

Ominously for Labour, UKIP is in second place among over-55s, the group most likely to vote, on 22 per cent. The Tories were on 24 per cent, Labour on 18 per cent and the Lib Dems 16 per cent.

Labour strategists – already braced before the expenses storm for a battering in the election – fear they will be worst affected of the major parties by the revelations over the last three weeks. The outcome could be further complicated by a likely low turnout which could benefit smaller parties such as Ukip, the Greens and the British National Party.

In 2004 Ukip came third in the popular vote, ahead of the Lib Dems, with 16 per cent support. Ukip had 12 Euro MPs elected. To repeat that performance would amount to a remarkable recovery by the party which has suffered bouts of internal wrangling.

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