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UKIP a surprise package again, says FT

Tuesday, 9th June 2009

The UK Independence party has proved once again to be the surprise package in European parliament elections, only a matter of weeks after seasoned political watchers had largely written off its chances, writes James Boxell in the Financial Times.

He wrote in the newspaper...

In contrast to the British National party, which reaped the benefit of abstentions by Labour voters, Ukip appeared to prosper from Tory supporters switching their votes to express displeasure about both the parliamentary expenses scandal and Britain’s continued membership of the European Union.

Nigel Farage, Ukip’s leader, said the results – slightly better in percentage terms than its performance in 2004, although its total number of votes was down – showed his party was “no flash in the pan”.

Ukip won 16.5 per cent of the vote, putting it in second place nationally behind the Tories, and increased its number of MEPs to 13, one more than in 2004. This is even more remarkable given that the party has done badly in recent local elections and was hit by its own high-profile expenses scandal, with one Ukip MEP imprisoned for abusing the system.

John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde university, said: “You could describe this as a pretty stupendous performance and something that a few weeks ago you would have put down as rather unexpected. It appears to highlight a continued scepticism among the British public about the benefits of membership of the EU.”

The article continued...

Ukip’s success will have alarmed Conservatives, who would have hoped to have taken advantage of the anticipated decline in the Eurosceptic party’s fortunes. Mr Curtice said: “The Tories will be the most disappointed by the performance because it has a disproportionate effect on their vote. A large part of their vote comes from people who have said they would ordinarily vote Tory in a general election.”

“David Cameron must have hoped that, given factors such as his own personal popularity and some of the problems Ukip has had, he could have pushed their vote down to at least 10 per cent.”

Ukip is expected to make far more modest gains in a general election because Tory voters will generally switch their votes back in an effort to dislodge Labour. They appear to see the European elections as an opportunity to safely express their antipathy towards Brussels. Nevertheless, even a 2 or 3 per cent share of the vote for Ukip in a general election could upset Tory hopes of establishing a clear majority.

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