UKIP is the only political party which believes that the carbon dioxide hypothesis of global warming is mistaken. The climate changes naturally - it has changed in the past, it is changing today, and it will change in the future.

Man has no effect on it.

The hypothesis that the main factor in the changes is the volume of CO2 in the atmosphere has never been proved using the scientific method accepted by the scientific world. The forecasts promoted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change are derived from specially written computer programs that are unproven. UKIP takes the view that it is factual, empirical evidence from which forecasts of climate changes should be derived.

Since the invention of the telescope, astronomers have been studying the frequency and number of sunspots, recording them in 11-year cycles. From the peak of cycle 21 in 1980 to the peak of cycle 24, there has been a steady and consistent reduction in sunspot numbers. We are about to enter cycle 25. The 350-year record since 1645 has meant that it is possible to bring together sunspots and temperature, and this shows that when sunspots are few, the climate is cold, and when they are many the climate is warm.

From 1645 to 1715, there were virtually no sunspots observed and this coincided with the coldest period of modern times known as the Little Ice Age, when rivers all over Europe froze and crops failed. There were other periods of cold, e.g., 1800 to 1820 (cycles 5 and 6) when in 1814, the Thames froze over at Westminster with similar effects on crops. The sunspot cycles have been declining over the last 30 years and we are now at the same level as cycle 6.

There have now been two new developments. First, the US National Space and Aeronautical Administration (NASA) has produced a forecast of sunspot cycle 25, which they expect to equal cycle 5 (6.8.20); the second forecast is from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (Electroverse 2.9.20), which also predicts a low cycle 25 with low cycles extending to 2040. The resulting decrease in the strength of Earth’s magnetic field and the increase of cosmic rays will have serious issues for astronauts but they omit any reference to climate.

If the empirical evidence of the past is a reliable guide, a much colder climate can be expected. The UK government is making no preparations for this.