Whether the PM resigns or not is largely immaterial. It might as well be sooner rather than later. There’s nothing to be served by dragging this out. Though the right are hoping for some sort of turnaround in order to save his career and the party’s fortunes, there is no basis on which to peg such hopes. We might see a minor tweak to VAT on energy bills but nothing radical. Nothing that would restore the confidence of the party faithful.

Some worry that if Johnson goes then Brexit is dead and buried, but then that was always the risk that came with choosing a leader for electoral convenience who never believed in Brexit and was primarily servicing his own career ambitions. In any case, I’m not sure what they mean. We have, after all, left the EU. If they mean that the reform momentum of Brexit will flounder then that ship has already sailed. That happened when Johnson made Net Zero his flagship agenda. That was the end of it.

Similarly, any hope that his successor will be a red meat Brexiteer tory is for the birds. The Tory party isn’t capable of delivering a real conservative agenda, not least because they don’t want to pick a fight with the establishment. Any successor will be keen to demonstrate a newfound seriousness and professionalism in contrast to Johnson, which in all probability means doubling down on climate superstition and Net Zero – to show “the adults are back in control”. Expect more levelling up waffle and mantras about green jobs. That’s their default mode.

In any case, the Tory right has never had a coherent Brexit agenda beyond an ideological crusade for “free trade” without fully comprehending what that means, and with no plan to cope with the economic and social consequences of unfettered unilateral trade liberalisation. John Redwood makes noises about producing more food here in the UK but at the same time wants to expose British farms to cheaper imports from Brazil, Argentina and Australia. When it comes down to it, the free market Tories don’t think British agriculture is viable so they’re going to pay farmers to re-wild viable farmland and rely on imports instead. They’ve already thrown fishermen under the bus and farmers are next.

More to the point, Brexit was primarily about sovereignty (not trade), restoring the primacy of British law, and that demands a radical overhaul of human rights and international law. That our borders are being undermined by an archaic instrument form the previous century is completely unacceptable. The Tories are more than happy to utilise Brexit to skew markets in favour of their donors, but when it comes to “taking back control” they tinker around the edges. Does anyone seriously believe the Tories will abolish the Human Rights Act or withdraw from the Refugee Convention?

When the chips are down the Tory party will dance to the tune of the media. It will always bow to establishment pressure. We’ll never again see a Tory PM who’s willing to be unpopular for the right reasons. The green blob is safe under the Tories, as is the NGOcracy. We’re to going to see deportations at scale nor are they going to end the invasion of illegal immigrants. They’re more likely to offer an amnesty.

As before Brexit, the difference between Labour and the Tories is marginal. Labour would would go faster and harder but the direction is always the same. If we want change then we have to vote for change and that means you have to step up and join UKIP. Even Tories admit that Johnson is the least worst option they’ve got, which is another way of saying this is the best they can do. If this is their best effort, then there’s no hope for them at all.