My analysis of the geopolitical situation around Ukraine has been somewhat timid. I think to be fully informed, you have to have been following events closely since at least 2013, and I can’t say I have. I was somewhat preoccupied with Brexit. What I can say, while attempting to bring myself up to speed, is that our wholehearted solidarity with Ukraine is misplaced. This is a multidimensional conflict.

As far as the British liberal establishment is concerned, this all began in February with no prior context where the evil Putin invaded the plucky and innocent underdog, and the West is coming to the rescue. But what did we know of him? Most had never heard of him. And how much is really known about Ukraine? Say what you like about Putin’s pretext for his invasion, but Zelensky has played his part in provoking it.

But even if you dispute that, you have to acknowledge that Ukraine is not liberal European democracy. It is a dysfunctional corrupt basket case. When Zelensky came to office, he was popular in Western Ukraine but had only a marginal win in the East. He promised he would resolve the war, he promised he would sort out corruption and he promised he would break the power of oligarchs.

In more recent times, his popularity had been dropping fast and he had achieved nothing. From packing his first cabinet with family and cronies (some “suggested” by Washington), his government went from disaster to disaster until he was forced to bring back the very oligarchs that he promised to get rid off. Essentially, Ukraine is a post-Soviet kleptocracy – exactly like Russia – and Zelensky has his fingers in the till the same way Putin does.

As to the conduct of Kiev, there are all manner of accusations levelled at it over its actions against Donbass, which could be described, in the technical sense, as genocide. Or at the very least active repression. I am told that Russian language and culture was being suppressed, “internally displaced persons” were disenfranchised and no longer permitted to vote, and Donbass industries were placed under economic sanctions that forced a lot of them out of business -a disaster for an aging population with few other sources of income – and the Kiev government refused to pay old age pensions to people in Donbass. The people of Donbass have been ostracised, abused and assaulted almost continuously since 2013 and bombed and shelled since 2014.

This isn’t the kind of thing that can be readily verified by the casual observer, not least since any search terms in Google tend to bring up present day events. The past is lost in the present. But you know, there’s more than a germ of truth to it. Reaching a conclusion, though, is all about weighting of disparate facts.

I have hinted at a large contingent of neo-nazi activity in Ukraine, which gives some small weight to Putin’s claim to be denazifying Ukraine. Bandera’s nazi (“nationalist”) movement has strong roots. Raised as privately funded militia, after Maidan the Azov and Donbass brigades were merged into the National Guard. Their ideology and the reign of terror in Donbass are matters of record. You can discount them, but even the Israeli press noted with some concern that since 2016 a new monument was being raised or a street renamed to commemorate one of the “nationalist” heroes nearly every week. They even raised a monument to a Nazi supporter in Babi Yar, the site of one of the worst Nazi atrocities.

We also learn that amidst the ongoing military confrontation Zelensky is seeking to appoint the far-right murdering criminal Serhiy Sternenko as head of Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) in Odessa, in an attempt to further his alliance with neo-Nazi forces. This isn’t to say that Ukraine is Nazi, but they do have a serious problem with their right wing extremists. You have to wonder then why the EU is so enthusiastic to have Ukraine as a member.

I don’t claim to be an expert in this, but it’s far murkier than the simplistic narratives we are spoonfed by the legacy media, much of which is just victim porn, providing us with no real insight as to what is happening. They’re more interested in human interest stories about refugees than reporting the complex politics and the highly fluid tactical situation.

When you take into account the grime and corruption in Ukraine, and its long standing dispute with Russia, it begins to look like a regional cauldron, of a wholly separate culture, in which we have no business meddling. The West by its use of sanctions and military aid is stirring the pot as Zelenski goes crybullying to the NATO dinner lady. It is certain that Putin’s deeds are malevolent, but Russia is responding to what it sees as existential threats, and in the abstract, not without provocation.

It has to be understood that Ukraine is a badly divided country, politically and ethnically. Since its liberation from Soviet rule, Ukraine has had a lot of problems uniting as a single country. You have a very pro-Western, Christian central and western section and a pro-Russian, Russian Orthodox eastern section, and the situation can be as fractious as Northern Ireland -and its borders unstable – which is why it was never a viable candidate for NATO membership. Russia, therefore, always had a vested interest in promoting instability for as long as NATO membership was dangled in front of Ukraine.

In this regard, EU membership is similarly a red flag to the Russian bull. The Ukraine EU association agreement does not go as far as single market membership but it certainly lays the foundations, which as it matures (all EU trade deals are a continuum) eventually puts a trade and governance border through Russian speaking territories. If you understand how contentious the Northern Ireland Protocol is, then imagine how Russia feels about the EU cleaving off part of what Russia considers part of its own ethnic territory.

When you then consider that the USA has had successive administrations with outwardly hostile attitudes to Russia, and has played its own role in installing a western friendly puppet government, aided by the EU, it’s no surprise that Putin takes the view that if he cannot take and hold Ukraine then he will flatten it. But then we are assuming Putin seeks to annexe all of Ukraine. The military offensive around Kiev is looking more and more like a distraction as Russia concentrates its efforts on securing its grip on eastern and southern territories – that Putin views as essential to the defence of Russia.

The gullible liberals in the West have fallen head over heels with Zelensky, largely out of their own conditioned hostility to Putin. Certainly there is good reason for such hostility given Putin’s thuggish behaviour over the years, but that does not make Zelensky a hero nor does it make Ukraine an innocent. Our knee-jerk fawning over Ukraine is born of a total ignorance, and a willingness to throw our weight around because we’re used to doing it without domestic consequences.

This time, though, there are to be consequences, both in terms of global power realignment (away from the west). sky high energy bills and food prices, and another wave of mass migration. Had we a political class capable of calculating the national interest we’d be leaving this hot mess well alone. But instead, we have virtue signalling morons who can’t see geopolitical events without superimposing half understood WW2 narratives, and equally juvenile notions of good versus evil, freedom versus tyranny. They will eventually learn, but it is we who will pay their price for their very very expensive education.