One year ago, I predicted that President Putin would eventually try to open negotiations to end the conflict in Ukraine once he had a solution he could sell to the Russian people. President Putin has now reached a point in this conflict that has secured a Russian held arc of approximately 25 miles deep, from the east of Kharkiv down to Kherson. This arc of captured territory is mainly Russian speaking and gives easy land access to Crimea.

The Ukrainian armed forces are holding positions along this front and in some areas pushing the invading Russian forces back. It is known that the Ukrainian’s will not easily give up any territory to Putin but will the pressure from the west force Zelensky to accept the current stale mate. Putin has declared he will not accept any demands, though this would obviously be his opening gambit. He is now wanted officially for war crimes, and he can see he has limited international credibility or future.

Putin’s meeting with President Xi of China will, I believe place China as the negotiator for peace. Afterall, it is China’s interest in global trade to find a solution agreeable to all sides.

As to the defence of our own shores, The Prime Minister has stated that stopping the cross-channel boat migrants, illegally entering the UK is one of his five priorities. He along with the Home Secretary believes that a change in the law denying illegal migrants asylum status and that deportation to Rwanda will break the criminal gang’s business model and the migrants will then stop coming.

This is pie in the sky thinking. These people know that the chances of being sent to Rwanda, or any other country is minimal. At best Rwanda can currently only take 1000 deportees, so with currently a one in four hundred and fifty chance of being deported from the UK, the odds are favourable to the migrants. Two years ago, a friend and colleague of mine devised a concept of operations that would stop at least 80% of the illegal migrants. This was fully drawn up, fully funded, legal and the humanitarian/safety aspects were catered for. This plan has been forwarded to the Government and successive Home Sectaries four times, with a request for a face-to-face meeting to discuss the plan as part of a range of options to dramatically reduce or indeed stop the boats from entering UK waters. Each time the plan was rejected out of hand, which I believe, shows the lack of intent by the Government.

Sqn Ldr Peter Richardson R’td

UK Independence party – Defence and Veterans Spokesman